Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Industry Report
September 2021
Exploratory Data Analysis
Distribution of the Response
Correlation between Covariates and Response
| Avg Pct Change | Sd Pct Change | Avg Vol | Pe Ratio | Price to Sales Ratio | Price to Book Ratio | Price to Fcf Ratio | Debt to Equity Ratio | Pays Dividend | Dividend Yield | Response | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| min | -2.8% | 0.8% | 222 | 0.00 | 0.000 | -639.00 | 0.00 | -108.000 | 0.000 | 0% | -2.130 |
| first_quart | -0.2% | 1.9% | 53500 | 3.44 | 0.725 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 0.345 | 0.000 | 0% | -0.841 |
| median | 0.1% | 2.5% | 283000 | 12.50 | 1.370 | 1.72 | 9.49 | 0.630 | 0.000 | 0% | -0.305 |
| mean | 0.1% | 3% | 1530000 | 15.90 | 1.910 | 60.50 | 28.60 | 4.260 | 0.189 | 0.8% | -0.227 |
| third_quart | 0.3% | 3.4% | 1280000 | 21.20 | 2.740 | 3.39 | 23.90 | 1.380 | 0.000 | 0% | 0.332 |
| max | 4.4% | 26.1% | 23100000 | 265.00 | 7.360 | 3970.00 | 2200.00 | 316.000 | 1.000 | 17.1% | 2.730 |
Model Tuning
Random Forest Models
Gradient Boosted Models
Final Models
Random Forest Model
Model Info and Metrics
- min_n: 1, mtry: 7
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.2529
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.6871
Gradient Boosted Model
Model Info and Metrics
- learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 3, tree_depth: 7
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.0871
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.1869
Future Predictions
| Company | Quarter | Price | RF Prediction | GB Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCON | 2020 Q4 | $1.17 | 203.85% | 375.35% |
| EXTN | 2021 Q2 | $4.28 | 93.74% | 331.05% |
| KLXE | 2021 Q2 | $11.35 | 79.16% | -8.83% |
| OII | 2021 Q2 | $13.94 | 42.27% | 206.09% |
| ENSV | 2021 Q2 | $1.45 | 41.15% | 28.79% |
| FTI | 2021 Q2 | $8.45 | 26.32% | 3.73% |
| MARPS | 2021 Q1 | $4.98 | 13.48% | -14.38% |
| NR | 2021 Q2 | $3.39 | 8.64% | 74.36% |
| IO | 2021 Q2 | $2.15 | 7.64% | 55.17% |
| NINE | 2021 Q2 | $2.27 | -1.19% | 15.12% |
| NOA | 2021 Q2 | $13.33 | -10.27% | -32.52% |
| NEX | 2021 Q2 | $4.39 | -17.53% | -26.09% |
| MTRX | 2021 Q2 | $12.07 | -19.16% | -32.16% |
| HAL | 2021 Q2 | $22.22 | -20.03% | -43.3% |
| CCLP | 2021 Q2 | $1.78 | -22.32% | -59.35% |
| FI | 2021 Q2 | $3.44 | -23.02% | 14.13% |
| NOV | 2021 Q2 | $15.56 | -23.59% | -32.71% |
| NESR | 2021 Q1 | $11.75 | -26.85% | -41.51% |
| AROC | 2021 Q2 | $9.33 | -27.19% | -24.17% |
| LBRT | 2021 Q2 | $13.49 | -27.69% | -42.92% |
| OIS | 2021 Q2 | $6.69 | -29.58% | -35.56% |
| MRC | 2021 Q2 | $10.16 | -29.82% | -45.94% |
| GIFI | 2021 Q2 | $4.49 | -31.37% | -47.86% |
| BKR | 2021 Q2 | $23.08 | -34.43% | -1.7% |
| CLB | 2021 Q2 | $35.85 | -38.12% | -62.98% |
| NRT | 2021 Q2 | $5.79 | -38.65% | -25.66% |
| DNOW | 2021 Q2 | $10.32 | -40.06% | -35.1% |
| PRT | 2021 Q2 | $6.29 | -40.3% | -35.67% |
| NCSM | 2021 Q2 | $27.2 | -42.22% | -52.29% |
| FTSI | 2021 Q2 | $25.94 | -43.22% | -52.32% |
| FTK | 2021 Q2 | $1.8 | -43.4% | -59.38% |
| CHX | 2021 Q2 | $24.34 | -48.16% | -63.1% |
| NGS | 2021 Q2 | $10 | -48.92% | -60.17% |
| DWSN | 2021 Q2 | $2.47 | -49.13% | -54.95% |
| PUMP | 2021 Q2 | $10.36 | -50.56% | -63.52% |
| CELP | 2021 Q2 | $2.28 | -51.11% | -65.22% |
| HLX | 2021 Q2 | $5.26 | -51.97% | -58.87% |
| BOOM | 2021 Q2 | $54.99 | -52.93% | -57.99% |
| PFIE | 2021 Q2 | $1.15 | -56.15% | -54.23% |
| FET | 2021 Q2 | $21.69 | -57.91% | -62.21% |
| GEOS | 2021 Q2 | $8.23 | -57.95% | -50.66% |
| DRQ | 2021 Q2 | $33.63 | -58.06% | -49.56% |
